Putting Complex Investment Arithmetic into the Right Context

“In 44 years of Wall Street experience and study. I have never seen dependable calculations made about common stock value that went beyond simple arithmetic of the most elementary alegbra.”

“… whenever calculus is brought in, you could take it as a warning signal that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give to speculation the deceptive guise of investment.”

Two ever relevent insights from the late Benjamin Graham (economist and professional investor) especially in light of modern high speed automated trading in today’s markets and the importance of market experience.

UBS’s 2 Billion Lost – In Defence of Ringfence Investment Banking

Banks still haven’t learnt. They think they can regulate themselves. That’s just not so.

- Hildegard Fässler, Swiss MP and Finance Specialist

The latest UBS derivatives trading scandal backdated to 2008 has renewed the call to impose strong  regulation on financial institutions. Despite UBS CEO, Oswald Grübel’s efforts to improve UBS risk management , the latest scandal reflects a lack of progress from the supposed move towards a “low-risk client driven model“.

One would asked, what happened to the bank’s “reformed” internal risk management and external audit function?

Some of the measures promoted by international regulatory bodies and leading economists include imposing higher capital standards, ringfencing investment banking from the wider banking organisation and in some cases separating of investment banking operations from their parent organisation.

Related link: Of course it’s right to ringfence rogue universals (Financial Times)

“Welcome” to the 2011 Singapore Haze Season

Haze and dust particles enveloped the Singapore city skyline. This marked the start of the annual haze season. The haze came from the burning of Sumatran forest and plantation fields to make way for new plantations.

Melbourne, the world’s most livable city – 2011 Global Liveability Survey

Melbourne won the 2011 title of most livable city, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual survey. (See BBC’s Melbourne edges out Vancouver to top liveable city list)

The result came as a bit of a surprise. Since my university days, I have always known Melbourne to be a great place to live – an open, lively, diverse, sporty and cultural society, access to good quality fresh produce, decent infrastructure, a decent rate of economic growth, a variety of connections to the rest of the world by plane.

However, over the years, my impression that this great city was slipping down the ranks because of the huge population increase, lack of affordable housing, overstretched public health system,  overcrowded public transport and ageing infrastructure and the  exceptional rising cost of living. Unfortunately, there have been a lack of real political leadership (from both sides of politics) at the state/ federal level after years of white paper churning. Just asked any average Melbournian about the state of the city? Australia has become a really unaffordable place to live or visit.

The only explanation that I could thought of to why these worsening issues did not affect the city’s overall rating is probably because their target audiences are those really affluent people who don’t really depend on the city’s crumbling public, over-utilised infrastructure or services.

Armchair Critique of Channel NewsAsia’s Living Cities Documentary Episode 1: Singapore

I just caught 20mins of the first episode of Living Cities “documentary” (shown on Channel NewsAsia) about my home – Singapore. It was so bad that it spurred me to write this post.

This show was a brain numbing and shallow boring brochureware. Maybe useful to numb the audience before going for the investment sales pitch. My introduction may sounded harsh. Maybe, but it is necessary to be critical in order to start a conversation to uncover Singapore’s distinctive contribution to the living cities discussion.. Not rehashing the familiar formula of Dubai, not Doha but Singapore – a global business city in Asia.

Comment 1: Lack of diversity amongst its panel commentators/ experts

Throughout the show, almost all commentators/ experts are Caucasians (I could only bear to watch the first 20mins before I turned off my TV) constantly heaping praises on Singapore. The Singapore I know certainly does not suffer a dearth of locals/ Asians experts living in this country that are capable to comment on the development of this Asian city. Having commentators mainly from a particular ethnic group meant that the content would only engage and connect audience of similar heritage. Furthermore, by having a wide range of commentators from different parts of the world which are able to make critical assessments, it adds to the credibility to the overall theme of the show that Singapore is a truly open global city that welcomes people and business from all over the world.

Comment 2: Lack of focus on the city’s Asian character

Singapore is a special place in the world because it is a developed city-state with an Asian identity. This quality enables it to be an effective bridge between the West and the rest of the developing Asia. It is silly to play down our inherent character. Singapore is relevent to the world because we are an easy Asian proxy for the other parts of the world. Therefore we should focus on how Asian characteristics can be adopted to address modern city living.

To respond to the show’s theme of”Living Cities”, it should have gone deeper into the challenges of urban living  and how Singapore overcame them. Instead, the show went on into a litany of clichés – young professionals in a CBD, yuppie life, fast moving cars, shopping malls,  gentrified heritage buildings that turned into cafe + galleries, frequent showing of foreign workforce and labelling it as progress. What is Singapore’s unique contribution in the living cities discussion?
Does the existence of such clichés actually resembles a living city? No. Our modern world is now searching for a new model of development. A new model of a living city where economic opportunities are plentiful through its connection with to the world. In the same breathe, its domestic residents must also feel a sense of connection, a belonging to the environment in which they live in. A model city is where its residents feel responsible and desire to make the society a better place, occasionally with the authorities’ involvement.

If the presenter wants to present Singapore as a model of a living city, there is a need to look and highlight such Singaporean examples. When that’s achieved, would the show give the city and its viewers a real insight into the living cities discussions.

The Famine and Drought Situation in East Africa – Be Informed, Get Involved and Save Lifes

The worst famine in 60 years has struck East Africa (Somalia and Kenya region), an area already engulfed by militant violence. They need your help, urgently.

Today, nearly half a million of Somalis are seeking food and shelter in Kenya. This video unveiled the dire situation at Dadaab, the world’s largest refugee camp in Kenya and now the refugees and aid workers are trying to keep up in extremely difficult conditions.
Please donate money and help the refugees in Kenya. This weekend, many in Singapore will be spending time family and friends over delicious pots of curries, let’s be thankful for the plenty we enjoy and share it with others and save lives.

You can now make a donation to UNHCR Somalia Crisis microsite.

Related link: A Place in the Sand (ABC Foreign Correspondent)

The State of the Federal ALP Government as described by Clarke and Dawe

As a casual observer of Australian politics I can’t help feeling tired and fed up with the current performance of the ALP at the federal and state levels. This video by Clarke and Dawe had accurately described what’s happening in the Labor government. This is a government that lost its agenda setting ability and is either in denial or lacked ideas to reverse its current position.

I had so much hopes for Australia when the ALP (Australian Labor Party) went through a disciplined and focused campaign to defeat the second longest serving Prime Minister – John Howard and took office. At the start, Rudd looked like a capable PM, financial conservative guy with foreign affairs expertise with Gillard looking liked a capable, strong deputy PM and taking on industrial relations and education portfolio amongst other things. Things looked pretty good and I thought Australia was entering into a golden age of economic and social policy progress. My admiration went to their latest level when a centre-left ALP managed to keep the Australian economy in shape through the darkest times of the 2008 GFC (global financial crisis) by riding on the China boom.

But since then everything seem to fall apart and I had my dose of reality check. This government was unable to defend their policies has gradually lost its support for its programmes and overall support despite a negative and uninspiring opposition. Australians were increasingly more worried for their future despite a blooming economy. The ALP’s internal discipline faltered, the great opportunity to push through difficult reforms despite a federal-state ALP government never came, education review led to more questions about Australia’s research future, national infrastructure investment did not fly, home insulation programme was canned, the mining super profit tax was watered down, climate change agenda captured by  the Coalition, refugee issue remained a question mark.

As a Sinophile, I was most disappointed by the dearth of leadership and ideas to engage China in a meaningful and with the forward looking vision to prepare the country for the rise of a new global power and the new opportunities beyond natural resources. Instead I saw policies and behaviours that reflected tints of yellow peril. United States is without a doubt still a global superpower and an important ally, but Australia has to prepare for the new reality.

If the federal ALP government wants to retain the confidence of the Australian public, they better get their act together and stopped repeating that these are difficult times for any government. Stop the denial and take it on the chin! Guess what? That’s why the Australian public voted them into government in the first place.

A Geek Moment

I’m a geek at heart when my first instinct was grab a screen capture of a Google 404… <grin />

Does artistic licence extend beyond sacrilegious realms?

Today I was mildly offended by Dawn Ng’s Walter after visiting the Singapore Art Museum (SAM), the former St Joseph Institution.

I was fond of the rabbit installation when it was installed at 8Q SAM. But I was a bit offended when I saw the familiar inflatable rabbit lying in the centre spot on a platform which was the former site of an altar.

Does the artistic licence extend beyond sacrilegious realms? Where is the line drawn on such matters?

Understanding the Structure of the Chinese’s Government and its Agencies

The US-China Business Council has a useful resource to make sense of the current (2011) structure of the Chinese central government and the (direct and indirect) reporting chain for the major agencies, their work plans and bio to key leaders.

People’s Republic of China Central Government Structure